*, Maine Heres where we think votes remain. *Alaskas Senate race uses ranked-choice voting. The party that wins two of the The first polls are closing in Indiana and Kentucky. While it is not enough to prevent filibustering, the 4 rational Republicans (Collins, Murkowski, Romney and Sasse) shall helped by preventing unwanted filibuster abuse. Nov. 8, 2022. If it is a moderate Republican candidate like Chris Sununu, there is a chance of New Hampshire flipping red. Four of the 6 contests that are expected to be very competitive are currently held by Democrats (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire) while the other 2 (North Carolina and Pennsylvania) are currently held by Republicans. Vance won Ohio handily even as almost every part of the state voted more for Democrats than they did in 2020. Our Senate forecast is based on past results, polling data and the current vote count. Alicia Parlapiano Were getting results from five states where voters are deciding whether to legalize marijuana. Democratic Gov. Republican Adam Laxalt is ahead in GOP-commissioned polling, though independent surveys still give Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto a chance. Note: Includes special elections held during year of election or during previous year. The facts are that the country is better off. That leaves Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania in the middle. Senate elections in California (2016 and 2018), Alabama (2014), and Arkansas (2020) were excluded because there were not 2 major-party candidates in the general election. In Floridas closely watched governors race, Gov. Tonight, our election forecast will show live estimates for which party is favored to win control in the Senate and House. Heres how they performed when compared with the 2020 presidential candidates. Compared to Kemps reported votes, Walkers fell short in every county, but especially in the Atlanta area and its suburbs. What we expect this year Rosenberg was vindicated when Democrats vastly overperformed expectations last year. Nov. 9, 2022, The feared Democratic collapse along the Rio Grande didnt materialize. Toggle Predictions subsection 1.1 Statewide. Nov. 8, 2022, Nevada is the last big swing state of the day, and virtually everything is up for grabs: The races for Senate, three House seats, governor and secretary of state. . Kathy Hochul claimed victory late Tuesday against Representative Lee Zeldin, a conservative Republican. Greg Abbott brushed off a well-funded challenge from Beto ORourke, winning a third term as Texas governor. Vance, the author and venture capitalist who is endorsed by Donald Trump, is competing with Representative Tim Ryan, a Democrat. Republican candidates won 83 out of 170 contested Senate races between 2012 and 2020, but the prediction model indicates that they should have won 91. The Associated Press also provides estimates for the share of votes reported, which are shown for races for which The Times does not publish its own estimates. Table 1 summarizes the results of the 174 U.S. Senate elections held between 2012 and 2020, including special elections. Democratic candidates won the large majority of contests in 2012 and 2018 while Republicans won the large majority of contests in 2014, 2016, and 2020. GOP Rep. Rick Allen never faced a real threat to his reelection. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. Ron DeSantis could seek to use a decisive 2022 victory into a springboard for a national campaign in 2024. Gov. But poor candidates could hurt their chances, as they have in some other recent Senate races.
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2022 senate predictions